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PACLIMBA - PArticulate Matter and CLIMate Change in BAvaria


Particulate Matter and Climate Change in Bavaria

Start date: 01.10.2012
End date: 30.09.2015
Funded by: DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft)
Local project leader: Dr. C. Beck Prof. Dr. J. Jacobeit Dipl. Geogr C. Weitnauer

Abstract

Near-ground concentrations of particulate matter with a particle distribution of a median aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) have been identified to affect public health. It is furthermore known that the extent of natural and anthropogenic emissions of these air pollutants, the level of precursor emissions as well as local meteorological conditions and large-scale circulation dynamics are significant factors affecting local concentrations of these fine particles. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate potential impacts of future climat change scenarios on local PM10 concentrations for the purpose to provide an important basis for air pollution mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Whereas the quantitative relationship between local meteorological and large-scale circulation parameters on the one hand and local PM10 concentrations on the other hand has been proven in several studies so far, there is no systematic attempt – especially for Germany - to transfer these conncetions on projections of climate change model simulations in order to estimate tendencies of future PM10 pollution levels.

Within the framework of the research project „PArticulate Matter an CLIMate Change in BAvaria (Germany)“ (PACLIMBA) the quantitative link between meteorological influencing factors on different scales and local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria (Germany) on basis of measured and reanalysis data sets is realized by using varying approaches of the so called statistical downscaling. After validating the generated statistical models, selected suitable approaches will be reapplied on control and scenario runs of different global climate models to estimate potential PM10 variations in Bavaria due to future climate change in the 21st century.